Headline : Whos Ahead? New Barrage of 2024 Polling Sheds Light on Presidential, Senate Races

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Here are some fresher results, starting with a few nationwide surveys pointing to a highly competitive contest:

A range of Trump up three (and up four within a broader field) to Biden up three (or just one in a wider field). In that final embedded survey, Biden's vote share barely budges if Trump is convicted "of a serious crime," but Trump's vote share would tumble into the 30's.  The presence of RFK, Jr. in the race appears to ever so slightly benefit Trump, though he seems to be pulling voters from both 'sides.'  In a race that will likely be determined at the margins, amid very small shifts, his presence on the ballot could be decisive.  The Kennedy family is showing up en masse for anxious Democrats for a reason, as their family member's campaign claims ballot access in a crucial battleground state:

Speaking of Michigan, here's one new poll out of that critical state:

In this data set, RFK eats into Trump's margin a bit. What about nearby, and equally important, Wisconsin?  Very, very close -- as usual:

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