Headline : Island Nations’ Election Results Reshuffle Geopolitical Landscape for China

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On April 17, the Solomon Islands held its first general election since Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare signed a controversial security pact with China in 2022. Under his administration, the country switched its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China in September 2019, leading to periodic protests that boiled over into “anti-China” riots in November 2021. As Kirsty Needham reported for Reuters, after serving as prime minister on four different occasions and after failing to win a majority, Sogavare just announced he would not seek another term:

“Geopolitics is at play,” Sogavare said, adding that his government had been “under pressure from the United States and Western allies” and that he had been “accused of many things.” His decision to cultivate closer relations with Beijing garnered intense pushback from Western capitals worried about expanding Chinese influence in what Western media and officials described as “Australia’s backyard.”

In a piece for The Interpreter, published by the Lowy Institute, Jon Fraenkel argued that “what transpired on 17 April was an emphatic defeat for the ruling party,” Sogavare’s Ownership, Unity and Responsibility (OUR) party:

Edward Acton Cavanough, author of “Divided Isles: Solomon Islands and the China Switch,” told Politico: “The results of the election so far suggest that the governing coalition of pro-Beijing Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has taken a hit. But whether or not this is related specifically to Sogavare’s China stance, or whether it is a reflection of the general apathy or frustrations towards the government  is hard to distinguish.” Nonetheless, in a pattern familiar from other cases, some Western analysts framed the election as merely a referendum on China. In an interview with The Diplomat, Cavanough painted a complex picture of the inception of Sogavare’s pro-China position and its economic and geopolitical impacts:

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